The Trump 48h ultimatum to fully open the Strait of Hormuz (or face US strikes on Iran's power plants) is confirmed—posted on Truth Social March 21, reported across Al Jazeera, Fox, Sky News, ABC. Iran responded by threatening full closure and attacks on regional energy assets.
Strait carries ~20% global oil; prolonged closure spikes prices/inflation. US 10Y yield sits ~4.3-4.39% (FRED data March 20), nearing noted risk levels amid war volatility. ~$9T US debt matures/refinances 2026—higher yields from oil shocks raise servicing costs.
Opening eases inflation expectations, supports Fed cuts & lower yields; closure risks sharper market hit. Geopolitics + macro pressures align as stated, but outcomes hinge on compliance/escalation.
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