The Brent surge to ~$83 (+17% in 5 days) is driven by US-Israel strikes on Iran, halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (20%+ of global supply), and a war premium.
Short-term: Could push higher to $85+ if disruptions escalate or production hits.
Medium-term: Likely peaks and pulls back—global oversupply (EIA/JPM forecasts Brent avg $58-60 for 2026) will dominate once tensions ease.
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